UK to ‘flirt’ with recession amid Iran oil shock and inflation

Spiralling energy costs amid the Middle East oil shock and the associated disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year, according to new forecasts.

The UK is expected to “flirt” with recession, with no growth in the second or third quarters, leading GDP growth to slow to 0.7 per cent in 2026, down from 1.4 per cent last year, the Item Club has forecast. Growth is expected to be at a “still-below-par” 0.9 per cent next year.

Gentle descent of interest rates hit by explosive turbulence

Andrew Bailey had it all under control, until the US and Israel bombed Iran. Now spiralling energy prices leave the Bank of England facing hard decisions

UK unemployment ‘will reach a five-year high this year’

EY Item Club warns that previously announced taxes will start to bite in 2026